A caravan of unintended consequences

The migrant caravan of 7,500 people traveling from Honduras to the United States border has now become three, possibly four caravans. The largest one is down to fewer than 4,000 people.

This isn’t the first caravan migration to head for the U.S. — there was one in March — but the current caravan is unprecedented in size. It was started by a leftist former lawmaker in Honduras who currently has a radio show. Bartolo Fuentes spread the word on social media and encouraged people to join the caravan. Fuentes said the crowds really grew after a TV newscaster reported, erroneously, that migrants making the trip would have some of their costs paid.

Now the question is, what should the U.S. government do?

Up until recently, U.S. policy on asylum-seeking migrants has allowed people who cross the border to simply tell a U.S. officer that they had a “credible fear” of persecution in their home country. Then they were given a future date for a hearing and released into the United States.

Some of them never return for their hearings. In 2009, there were 5,000 asylum claims. Last year there were 73,000. President Trump wants to change the policy, and the caravan is giving him political cover to do it. The president has ordered more than 5,000 U.S. Army troops to the southern border to assist the Border Patrol. The Wall Street Journal reported that they are mainly military police and engineers.

That suggests a plan to build something, likely something that will be part of a law-enforcement effort.

Sure enough, the president confirmed it Monday night. “We’re going to build tent cities, we’re going to put tents up all over the place,” he told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham.

The Army’s tent cities will apparently be used to house migrants who are waiting for asylum hearings. And then, “If they don’t get asylum, they get out of here. We’re not letting them into this country,” the president said.

Trump is ending the policy that has allowed people to get around the immigration process by entering the U.S., claiming a “credible fear,” and then stay permanently, if not always legally.

The military has the capability to build a functioning city anywhere. It appears that the troops are going to build a pop-up detention facility for the long-term housing of asylum-seekers at the southern border.

Harsh statements from the Trump administration urging the caravan members not to come to the U.S. are likely intended to increase the attractiveness of Mexico’s offer of asylum, or the offer made by Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández of jobs and other aid for migrants who return home.

Hinting that Trump was using the Army for political theater ahead of the midterm elections, Newsweek reported that the administration ordered the troops to the border despite being informed that “only a small percentage” of migrants in the caravans would actually make it to the border.

But that misses the point. The Trump administration previously made a botched effort to end the policy of releasing asylum-seekers by separating children from adults detained. This time, the president has a different political strategy.

He’s pounding the message that the United States needs border security because we have no idea who is coming into the country. It’s probably going to work for him, possibly for an unexpected reason.

Something to watch in immigration politics is the effect of the November ballot on public opinion. More than 100 local governments in California are asking voters to approve tax hikes on Nov. 6, following 36 local tax increases that went before voters in June. Voters are being told at the local and state they must pay higher taxes because there isn’t enough money to provide important, even life-saving services to everybody.

Add to that the steady pounding of the message that there isn’t enough water or electricity in California, or enough housing for everyone here.

After years of costly and reckless policies driven by special-interest politics and exaggerated fear of climate change, we are now living with the ugly politics of shortages, and unsurprisingly, a lot of people are upset about uncontrolled immigration. You might say it’s a caravan of unintended consequences.

Susan Shelley is an editorial writer and columnist for the Southern California News Group. Susan@SusanShelley.com. Twitter: @Susan_Shelley.

Source link